Avg index if passed
51.4 / 100
Optional Referendum•14 Jun 2026•in 2 months
Änderung vom 26. September 2025 des Bundesgesetzes über den zivilen Ersatzdienst (Zivildienstgesetz, ZDG)
An optional referendum on tighter civilian service rules, aimed at reducing military-to-civilian service switches and reshaping the replacement-service framework.
Avg index if rejected
58.1 / 100
Forecast tickets
26
AI composite forecast
Aggregated across 1 configured model and shown as a separate reference beside the crowd market.
If passed
57.0
If rejected
52.0
Users and AI disagree on which outcome leaves Swiss Civic Resilience Index higher.
Users put reject ahead by 6.7 points, while AI puts pass ahead by 5.0 points.
Official source
Market closes: 14 Jun 2026, 00:00 GMT+2
Conditional market
Mint: if passedGold: if rejected
The chart tracks how the crowd's average Swiss Civic Resilience Index forecast has moved over time under each vote outcome. The AI composite is shown separately above as a reference, not as extra chart lines.
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Insufficient signal
Insufficient signal
Confidence
0%
Articles reviewed
2
Last refreshed
15 Apr 2026, 08:01 GMT+2
Recent coverage could not be fully verified within the last month, so this cycle was downgraded to insufficient signal.
Welfare metric
Swiss Civic Resilience Index
This baseline metric treats the referendum as a state-capacity question with spillovers: the preferred outcome is the one that strengthens defense and emergency readiness by 2036 without simply pushing shortages, productivity losses, or welfare costs into other parts of Swiss society.
How to read this index
The final score always runs from 0 to 100, where higher means a better overall Swiss welfare outcome by 2036. Individual ingredients do not all move in the same direction: higher GDP per capita can improve the index, while lower commute time can also improve it because that component is marked as lower is better.
Armed forces staffing
30%
Tracks whether stricter switching rules actually improve the staffing resilience the reform is meant to protect.
Direction
Higher values raise the overall index
VBS staffing and force-readiness indicators
Care-sector vacancy pressure
25%
Checks whether tighter civilian-service rules shift hidden costs into hospitals, care homes, and social institutions.
Direction
Lower values raise the overall index
FSO health and social-care vacancy indicators
Emergency readiness
20%
Represents the state-capacity argument by rewarding strong response capability across civilian protection systems.
Direction
Higher values raise the overall index
Civil protection and emergency-readiness reporting
Labor productivity
15%
Captures economy-wide efficiency effects rather than evaluating the initiative only through institutional staffing.
Direction
Higher values raise the overall index
SECO and FSO labor productivity indicators
Subjective well-being
10%
Keeps the metric tied to broader household welfare in case institutional gains come with social friction.
Direction
Higher values raise the overall index
FSO subjective well-being index
Source notes
Baseline Progno launch metric designed to test whether stricter civilian-service rules improve readiness without degrading welfare elsewhere.