Live initiatives
2
Swiss direct democracy, shadow-priced
A play-points market for Switzerland's future.
Progno mirrors Swiss federal initiatives with conditional welfare markets. For each proposal, the crowd forecasts a public 0-100 welfare index in two ways: if the measure passes, and if it fails. Every participant gets one equal-weight forecast ticket per initiative.
Thin markets are shown with seeded history until enough real participation accumulates for a fully live curve.
Approved indices
2
Forecast tickets
55
How Futarchy Works
Three steps: initiative, index, bet.
Progno does not ask you to bet on raw vote share. It asks you to forecast a public welfare index in two counterfactual worlds: one where the initiative passes, and one where it fails.
Step 1
Initiative
Each market begins with one real Swiss proposal. The key question is not just who wins the vote, but what Switzerland looks like afterward under both outcomes.
Optional Referendum
Änderung vom 26. September 2025 des Bundesgesetzes über den zivilen E...
An optional referendum on tighter civilian service rules, aimed at reducing military-to-civilian service switches and reshaping the replacement-ser...
If passed
Forecast the world where the proposal becomes law.
If rejected
Forecast the world where the status quo remains.
Step 2
Index
Every initiative gets a named 0-100 welfare index built from public indicators. Higher means a better Swiss outcome by 2036, even if some components are better when they go down.
Public welfare index
Swiss Civic Resilience Index
0-100 scale
0Higher is better by 2036100
Armed forces staffing30%
Higher helps the index
Care-sector vacancy pressure25%
Lower helps the index
Emergency readiness20%
Higher helps the index
Step 3
Bet
You get one forecast ticket per initiative and submit two numbers. Those numbers are your estimate of the index level under each outcome, not your guess about the referendum margin.
One forecast ticket
2036 outcome
If passed
Forecast the index level if this world happens.
51.4
If rejected
Forecast the index level if this world happens.
58.1
What that meansReject edge: 6.7 pts
Your ticket says rejection leads to a better Swiss Civic Resilience Index than passage.
What you are actually betting on
The bet is the future value of the chosen index, conditional on each vote result. The spread between your two numbers is your view on whether the initiative helps or hurts the measured welfare outcome.