Avg index if passed
59.4 / 100
Popular Initiative•14 Jun 2026•in 2 months
Volksinitiative Keine 10-Millionen-Schweiz!
A popular initiative focused on sustainability and migration limits, centered on a proposal to keep Switzerland below 10 million residents before 2050.
Avg index if rejected
44.6 / 100
Forecast tickets
29
AI composite forecast
Aggregated across 1 configured model and shown as a separate reference beside the crowd market.
If passed
64.0
If rejected
58.0
Users and AI agree that Swiss Prosperity Index is higher if the initiative passes.
Users currently put pass ahead by 14.8 points, and AI puts pass ahead by 6.0 points.
Official source
Market closes: 14 Jun 2026, 00:00 GMT+2
Conditional market
Mint: if passedGold: if rejected
The chart tracks how the crowd's average Swiss Prosperity Index forecast has moved over time under each vote outcome. The AI composite is shown separately above as a reference, not as extra chart lines.
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Mixed
-0.8
Confidence
90%
Articles reviewed
4
Last refreshed
15 Apr 2026, 08:01 GMT+2
Recent coverage in the last month is predominantly negative toward the initiative. Most articles focus on warnings from the Federal Council, universities, and the Swiss Cities Association that the proposal could harm prosperity, public services, and Switzerland’s relations with the EU. One report covers the SVP’s own campaign event, where the party defended the initiative by arguing that population growth is straining land use, housing, and infrastructure.
Welfare metric
Swiss Prosperity Index
This baseline metric reflects the core tradeoff in the 10-million debate: Switzerland may gain output from growth, but that gain only counts if housing, mobility, nature, and lived quality of life remain strong enough to preserve broad prosperity by 2036.
How to read this index
The final score always runs from 0 to 100, where higher means a better overall Swiss welfare outcome by 2036. Individual ingredients do not all move in the same direction: higher GDP per capita can improve the index, while lower commute time can also improve it because that component is marked as lower is better.
Real GDP per capita
40%
Captures whether the Swiss economy is generating more inflation-adjusted prosperity per resident by 2036.
Direction
Higher values raise the overall index
FSO national accounts / real GDP per capita
Housing affordability
20%
Measures whether households can still secure housing without an outsized rent or ownership burden.
Direction
Higher values raise the overall index
FSO housing cost burden and affordability indicators
Average commute time
20%
Tests whether population pressure translates into longer daily travel and weaker transport quality.
Direction
Lower values raise the overall index
FSO mobility and commuting indicators
Biodiversity and green space
10%
Preserves the environmental side of the debate by rewarding healthy land use and accessible nature.
Direction
Higher values raise the overall index
FOEN biodiversity and green-space proxy indicators
Subjective well-being
10%
Anchors the index in lived quality of life rather than relying only on hard macroeconomic outputs.
Direction
Higher values raise the overall index
FSO subjective well-being index
Source notes
Baseline Progno launch metric combining prosperity, housing, congestion, environmental quality, and self-reported well-being.